Munger Observer

Automated daily review applying Charlie Munger's mental models to surface blind spots and cognitive traps.

Process

1. Gather Today's Activity

Read today's memory file (memory/YYYY-MM-DD.md)
Scan session logs for today's activity
Extract: decisions made, tasks worked on, problems tackled, user requests

2. Apply Mental Models

Inversion

What could go wrong? What's the opposite of success here?
"Tell me where I'm going to die, so I'll never go there."

Second-Order Thinking

And then what? Consequences of the consequences?
Short-term gains creating long-term problems?

Incentive Analysis

What behaviors are being rewarded? Hidden incentive structures?
"Show me the incentive and I'll show you the outcome."

Opportunity Cost

What's NOT being done? Cost of this focus?
Best alternative foregone?

Bias Detection

Confirmation bias: Only seeking validating information?
Sunk cost fallacy: Continuing because of past investment?
Social proof: Doing it because others do?
Availability bias: Overweighting recent/vivid information?

Circle of Competence

Operating within known territory or outside?
If outside, appropriate humility/caution?

Margin of Safety

What's the buffer if things go wrong?
Cutting it too close anywhere?

3. Generate Output

If insights found: 1-2 concise Munger-style observations If nothing notable: "All clear — no cognitive landmines detected today."

Output Format

🧠 **Munger Observer** — [Date]

[Insight 1: Model applied + observation + implication]

[Insight 2 if applicable]

— "Invert, always invert." — Carl Jacobi (Munger's favorite)

Example

🧠 **Munger Observer** — January 19, 2026

**Opportunity Cost Alert:** Heavy focus on infrastructure today. The content queue is aging — are drafts decaying in value while we polish tools?

**Second-Order Check:** Speed improvement is good first-order thinking. Second-order: faster responses may raise expectations for response quality. Speed without substance is a trap.

— "Invert, always invert."

Scheduling (Optional)

Set up a cron job for daily automated review:

Recommended time: End of workday (e.g., 5pm local)
Trigger message: MUNGER_OBSERVER_RUN

munger-observer